The Vital Role of Immigration in New Zealand’s Future

Immigration has long been a cornerstone of New Zealand’s growth, and its importance has never been more evident than in recent years. As the primary driver of population increase over the past two decades, positive net migration is crucial for the nation’s future well-being. Without it, New Zealand’s population would be on a trajectory to peak in the early 2040s and then begin to decline, a fate faced by many other Western countries with aging populations and low birth rates.

The latest statistics from Stats NZ for the year to April 2025 highlight a recent shift in these trends. While a net migration gain of 21,300 people was recorded, this represents a significant drop from the peak of 135,500 in October 2023. In the year to April 2025, New Zealand saw 145,000 migrant arrivals and 123,700 departures, with a notable net loss of 45,600 New Zealand citizens. This downward trend is a continuation of the past year and suggests the possibility of negative net migration in the near future. The main arrivals in April (excluding New Zealanders and Australians) were people on work, visitor, student, and resident visas.

The main source countries for these new migrants continue to be India, China, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, the UK, and Australia. Interestingly, Australia’s main source countries for migration include the UK, India, China, and New Zealand, indicating a cross-Tasman flow of people.

The New Zealand government is actively working to address the shifting migration landscape with new policies. The recently announced Parent Boost Visa, a long-term visitor visa for parents, aims to make New Zealand more attractive to skilled migrants who want their families to be able to stay long-term. Additionally, the government is adding 10 new trades to the Green List work-to-residence pathway, including welders and metal fabricators, to attract more skilled workers. Efforts are also being made to expedite international student visa processing, recognizing that international students are not only valuable to the economy but also represent a key pool of desirable long-term migrants.

In conclusion, while the current downward trend in migration numbers is not yet a crisis, it is a reminder of the critical need for New Zealand to maintain a positive net migration rate. This is essential to avoid population stagnation and mitigate the long-term impacts of an aging population.